State of the climate: 2026 likely to tie with 2024 as the warmest year on record

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Briefings

Carbon Brief's analysis indicates 2026 is likely the warmest year on record, with a 67% probability of surpassing 2024's record across six major datasets. August 2026 was the warmest month on record in all six datasets, while September was the second-warmest. The year's record-setting El Niño event, combined with human-caused global warming, drove these outcomes. Earth's energy imbalance has more than doubled since the satellite record began, and Arctic sea ice reached its lowest level on record.

Key points

August 2026 was the warmest month on record in all six major global temperature datasets, exceeding the previous record by approximately 0.12C.

The probability that 2026 is the warmest year on record is 67% across six datasets, with odds ranging from as high as 97% in Berkeley Earth to less than 20% in European Copernicus/ECMWF's ERA5 reanalysis product.

Context

Carbon Brief's analysis combines data from six major global temperature datasets to assess 2026's status as a record year. The findings are based on the first nine months of the year, with projections extending into 2027. The analysis highlights the role of El Niño events and human-caused global warming in determining annual temperature records.

Limitations

The analysis covers only the first nine months of 2026, with projections for 2027 based on current trends. Some datasets show conflicting results regarding whether 2026 officially beat 2024's record, and the exact final temperature for 2026 remains uncertain until all monthly data is compiled.

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