Economy

Interest rates unlikely to reach 4.75% by next summer, say City economists

Read full article at source ↗

Based on a feed excerpt; full article content has not been acquired. Source evidence retrieved 25/10/2026, 12:05:24 UTC.

Briefings

City economists warn that UK interest rates will likely reach 4.75% by end of July but are unlikely to hit that target by next summer. Market-implied expectations suggest the Bank of England will raise rates at least four times over the next year, potentially reaching 5% by December 2027. This analysis relies on data from October 2026 and assumes no additional background context.

Key points

• Market-implied interest rate expectations indicate the Bank of England will raise rates at least four times over the next year, lifting the bank rate from 3.75% to 4.75% by end of July.
• City economists believe the Bank of England is unlikely to increase rates by a full percentage point or more by next summer, with a possibility of lowering rates by end of 2027.

Context

Analysis based on October 2026 data suggests market-implied expectations show the Bank of England will raise rates at least four times over the next year, potentially reaching 5% by December 2027. This finding challenges previous market predictions about a full percentage point increase by next summer.

Limitations

Analysis relies on October 2026 data and assumes no additional background context. Uncertainty exists regarding future rate decisions beyond the December 2027 projection.

Generated by Bittrees-hosted qwen35-2b sha256:aaf42c8b7c3c on 25/10/2026, 12:09:58 UTC. Based on publisher-provided feed evidence; may not cover the full original article. Check the source for details.

View archived briefing on IPFS
bafybeihevpmwenrjcauy2ryrvc63zdtuurhig4o5abtdmtqadrfbtv2awm