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Super El Niño could cause 451,000 excess deaths worldwide

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Briefings

Researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab estimate that an extreme 'super El Niño' could result in up to 451,000 excess deaths worldwide within the six months leading up to February 2027. This scenario is linked to a projected 44% increase in extremely hot days, with Nigeria, Indonesia, and Sudan identified as countries most likely to suffer significant impacts. The study warns that the actual death toll may extend beyond the initial six-month window. Chloe Brimicombe from the University of Oxford provided additional context on this climate phenomenon.

Key points

• Researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab project up to 451,000 excess deaths worldwide in the six months to February 2027 due to an extreme 'super El Niño' event.
• The study predicts a 44% increase in extremely hot days globally, with Nigeria, Indonesia, and Sudan identified as countries most likely to experience severe impacts.

Context and limitations

The analysis covers only the six-month period leading up to February 2027 and does not account for impacts extending beyond this timeframe. The specific number of excess deaths is an estimate based on projected heat days rather than confirmed mortality data.

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