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El Niño Then and Now

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Based on a feed excerpt; full article content has not been acquired. Source evidence retrieved 23/10/2026, 22:50:25 UTC.

Briefings

A 2026 El Niño event is being tracked by NASA's Earth Observatory using altimetry satellite data to compare sea surface height anomalies against the 1997 record. The current event shows elevated sea levels in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, mirroring the 1997 pattern but with a more sudden onset. While the 2015-16 event also featured strong warm water, it lacked the South American coastal buildup seen in 1997. A NOAA outlook predicts an 83% chance of a strong-to-very strong El Niño through early 2027, though specific winter impacts remain uncertain.

Key points

• Sea surface height anomalies in October 2026 show elevated levels in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, mirroring the 1997 event pattern.
• The 2015-16 El Niño was also strong but differed by lacking the elevated water buildup along the South American coast.

Context

NASA's Earth Observatory uses altimetry satellites to track sea surface height anomalies, comparing current El Niño events to historical records. This comparison helps scientists understand how recent climate patterns compare to past events like 1997 and 2015-16.

Limitations

Data sources include TOPEX/Poseidon and Sentinel-6 satellites with a 35-year altimetry record. Some impacts remain uncertain due to atmospheric chaos extending beyond the tropics, and the exact winter 2026-27 outcomes are not yet fully determined.

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