Climate

Thwaites is a runaway climate disaster. New studies show how.

Read full article at source ↗

Based on a feed excerpt; full article content has not been acquired. Source evidence retrieved 26/10/2026, 08:30:23 UTC.

Briefings

New research indicates Thwaites Glacier, nicknamed the 'Doomsday Glacier,' could contribute twice as much to sea level rise by 2100 compared to previous models. A recent study in Nature Communications, led by Mattia Poinelli, incorporated dynamic tides into simulations, revealing Thwaites may become permanently unpinned from the seabed as early as 2038. A separate study in Geophysical Research Letters by Rosie Williams compared Thwaites to Pine Island Glacier, finding that while Pine Island might recover in cooler climates, Thwaites faces a 150-year trajectory of continued melting under current warming trends.

Key points

• Thwaites Glacier, located at the bottom of the world, holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by two feet if it fails completely, potentially adding up to 10 feet if the entire interior sheet succumbs.
• A new model published in Nature Communications accounts for dynamic tides in the grounding zone, showing Thwaites could become permanently unpinned from the seabed by 2038 with a 60% probability by 2100.

Context

This finding addresses a critical gap in climate projections regarding the Antarctic ice sheet. The study highlights that previous models failed to account for the oscillating tides which create channels allowing accelerated melting. Understanding these dynamics is essential for predicting future sea level rise and assessing the vulnerability of coastal communities in regions like North Carolina, the Solomon Islands, and Senegal.

Limitations

The evidence relies on a single new paper published in Nature Communications and a separate study in Geophysical Research Letters. The model's accuracy depends on the assumption that global warming continues at current rates, which is uncertain. The study does not provide a definitive timeline for Thwaites' failure, only probabilistic estimates for 2038 and 2100, and it does not account for potential geoengineering interventions.

Generated by Bittrees-hosted qwen35-2b sha256:aaf42c8b7c3c on 26/10/2026, 08:35:03 UTC. Based on publisher-provided feed evidence; may not cover the full original article. Check the source for details.

View archived briefing on IPFS
bafybeictayddeunieobnjvwwurlvk4mpbgaaqm6tconfkcwa2uv6hbmzxq