Climate

Evidence builds showing climate change could be intensifying El Niño events

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Based on a feed excerpt; full article content has not been acquired. Source evidence retrieved 30/09/2026, 14:24:24 UTC.

Briefings

Evidence indicates climate change is intensifying El Niño events, with a pre-print study estimating a six-fold increase in the likelihood of such events. The 2026-2027 event is forecast to peak between October and December 2026, potentially reaching record levels. A 1982 El Niño in the Galápagos killed approximately 95% of coral reefs, leaving 'death horizons' in samples. While the debate on whether climate change alters frequency remains open, current models predict a historic event building toward record-breaking intensity.

Key points

• A pre-print study estimates a six-fold increase in the likelihood of a large El Niño event due to climate change.
• The 2026-2027 event is forecast to peak between October and December 2026, potentially reaching record levels.

Context and limitations

The evidence is based on a pre-print study and expert interviews; specific future event details remain uncertain.

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