Government reviews high growth to 2.3% this year. Rate slows to 2.1% in 2027

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Briefings

The Portuguese government revised its economic growth forecast upward to 2.3% for 2026, based on the 2027 State Budget proposal delivered to Parliament. This revision increased the projection by 0.3 percentage points from the previously expected 2.0%, aligning with the Bank of Portugal and Public Finance Council. However, international bodies like the IMF and OECD project lower growth rates of 1.6% to 1.8%, creating a divergence between national and international expectations.

Key points

The Portuguese government revised its economic growth forecast upward to 2.3% for 2026, based on the 2027 State Budget proposal delivered to Parliament.

International bodies like the IMF and OECD project lower growth rates of 1.6% to 1.8%, creating a divergence between national and international expectations.

Context

This briefing covers the 2027 State Budget proposal for Portugal, which was delivered to Parliament on October 8, 2026. The Ministry of Finance updated the growth projection from 2.0% to 2.3%, reflecting changes in consumption and investment assumptions. The document highlights specific drivers such as the PRR implementation and TAP's fleet renewal, alongside export recovery and labor market resilience.

Limitations

The evidence is limited to the 2027 State Budget proposal and does not include data from 2025 or 2026. International forecasts from the IMF and OECD are cited but not verified against the Portuguese government's official figures. The document does not provide causal analysis of why the growth rate increased or decreased, nor does it offer a forecast for 2027 beyond the stated projection.

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