Science

Nigeria faces world's highest projected heat death toll from super El Niño

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Based on a feed excerpt; full article content has not been acquired. Source evidence retrieved 25/09/2026, 12:25:25 UTC.

Briefings

A University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab study analyzed global temperature forecasts against heat-related mortality data from over 24,000 regions. The research projects that a super El Niño event could result in approximately 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between 2026 and 2027. The study highlights the potential for significant regional disparities in heat exposure and death outcomes during this specific climate anomaly period.

Key points

• The University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab analyzed temperature forecasts combined with heat-related mortality data from over 24,000 regions worldwide.
• Researchers estimate that a super El Niño event could cause approximately 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally between 2026 and 2027.

Context and limitations

The analysis covers only the period between 2026 and 2027, and the 451,000 figure represents an estimated projection based on available temperature and mortality data rather than confirmed outcomes.

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