Space

Analysts find looming launch crisis is "more severe" than anticipated

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Based on a feed excerpt; full article content has not been acquired. Source evidence retrieved 30/10/2026, 16:23:24 UTC.

Briefings

A Quilty Space report indicates a global rocket launch shortage outside China, with a projected shortfall of 150 launches between 2026 and 2030. If US military demand is included and SpaceX does not extend its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy programs, the gap could double to 300 launches. The crisis is expected to persist through the 2030s, potentially delaying resolution until the late 2030s.

Key points

• Quilty Space estimates a 150-launch shortfall globally outside China between 2026 and 2030.
• The shortfall could reach 300 launches if US military demand is added and SpaceX does not extend its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy programs.

Context

The analysis comes from Quilty Space, an analytics firm that assesses global space infrastructure needs. This finding highlights a critical gap in commercial and military launch capacity that could impact satellite deployment and national security missions.

Limitations

The report covers only the period from 2026 to 2030 and excludes China from the global shortage calculation. The forecast assumes no changes to SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy programs and does not account for future technological advancements or policy shifts.

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