Economy

CNI reduces GDP growth forecast to 1.6% in 2026

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Based on a feed excerpt; full article content has not been acquired. Source evidence retrieved 28/10/2026, 20:24:23 UTC.

Briefings

Brazil's National Confederation of Industry (CNI) revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast downward from 2% to 1.6%, driven by weaker industrial transformation and service sectors amid high interest rates and reduced demand. The agropecuaria sector saw an upward revision to 2.5% growth, while industrial construction remains projected at 1.5%. Key economic indicators include a 5.15% inflation forecast, a 13.25% annual Selic rate, and a 83.7% public debt-to-GDP ratio.

Key points

• The CNI reduced Brazil's 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2% to 1.6% in October 2026, citing weaker industrial transformation and service sector performance.
• Industrial transformation is projected to contract by 0.7% in 2026, while industrial construction is expected to grow by 1.5% due to infrastructure investments.

Context

The CNI's revised projections reflect a slowdown in industrial transformation and service sectors, with high interest rates and reduced demand internal pressures. These forecasts contrast with the FMI's 2.2% growth projection for the same period.

Limitations

Data covers only the third quarter of 2026, with inflation forecasted at 5.15% and Selic rate at 13.25% annually. Public debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated at 83.7% by year-end 2026.

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