SciencePolitics

Can we really predict the future? Over one million forecasts offer clues, not certainty

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Based on a feed excerpt; full article content has not been acquired. Source evidence retrieved 26/10/2026, 13:25:25 UTC.

Briefings

A Tel Aviv University study analyzed over 1 million individual forecasts to determine if collective human belief can predict future events. The research found that while crowds often predict outcomes remarkably accurately, this accuracy diminishes significantly for specific, high-stakes events like international conflicts and elections, suggesting that human prediction is limited to general trends rather than precise future outcomes.

Key points

• A study of over 1 million individual forecasts by crowds of people showed they often predict future events remarkably accurately.
• The accuracy of these collective predictions drops significantly for specific events like international conflicts and elections.

Context

This research investigates whether human belief can predict future outcomes, using a massive dataset of 1 million forecasts to test the reliability of crowd-based prediction models.

Limitations

The study covers only general trends and does not provide data on specific events like international conflicts or elections. The evidence is limited to the 1 million forecasts analyzed, and the study does not account for all variables influencing prediction accuracy.

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