Climate

Permafrost, wetland, wildfire and freshwater emissions could amplify climate change by up to 30%, study finds

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Briefings

A study published in Environmental Research Letters estimates that natural systems like permafrost, wetlands, and wildfires could amplify human-caused warming by 20-30% by 2100, adding 0.2-0.4°C to global temperatures. The research quantifies emissions from four sources since 2020, with methane accounting for roughly half the total warming. Lead author Sam Abernethy from Spark Climate Solutions analyzed thawing permafrost in northern Alaska as a key driver of this feedback loop.

Key points

• The study quantifies greenhouse gas emissions from permafrost, wetlands, freshwater, and wildfires, estimating a 20-30% amplification of anthropogenic warming by 2100.
• Methane released by natural systems accounts for approximately half of the total warming increase attributed to these four sources.

Context and limitations

The analysis covers only natural systems since 2020, excluding human-caused emissions prior to that date. The study does not account for future climate scenarios beyond 2100 or other potential feedback mechanisms.

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