Climate

Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions set to dip in 2026 as Iran conflict hits oil use

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Briefings

Global CO2 emissions are projected to reach a record high of 43.3GtCO2 in 2026, driven by rising land-use emissions from deforestation in South-East Asia. Fossil fuel emissions are expected to fall by 0.4% to 38.2bn tonnes, largely due to a 1.9% drop in oil emissions from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure. Land-use emissions are projected to rise by 4.9GtCO2 annually, offsetting some fossil reductions. The 2026 budget remains preliminary with a 1.5% to 0.6% uncertainty range, and the land sink in 2025 was the highest on record.

Key points

• Total CO2 emissions are projected to reach a record high of 43.3GtCO2 in 2026, driven primarily by a projected 4.9GtCO2 annual rise in land-use emissions from deforestation in South-East Asia.
• Fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall by 0.4% to 38.2bn tonnes in 2026, with oil emissions dropping 1.9% due to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure, while coal emissions are projected to increase slightly.

Context

This briefing covers the 21st edition of the Global Carbon Project's annual report, published on 2026-11-10. It details projections for 2026 emissions, highlighting the impact of the Iran conflict on oil use and the specific drivers of land-use emissions in South-East Asia.

Limitations

The 2026 budget figures are preliminary with a 1.5% to 0.6% uncertainty range. Land-use emissions are more challenging to estimate than fossil emissions, and the land sink in 2025 was the highest on record, though the current El Niño is expected to weaken it in 2027.

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