Climate

‘Concerning’ low sea ice persists as Antarctic hits third-lowest winter peak

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Briefings

Antarctic sea ice hit its annual winter peak on 14 September 2026 with an extent of 17.59 million square kilometers, marking the third-smallest peak since satellite records began 48 years ago. The Arctic reached its annual minimum on 12 September 2026 at 4.60 million square kilometers, tying with previous years as the 10th-lowest extent on record. A structural shift in Antarctic conditions is suspected, with the Bellingshausen Sea becoming ice-free in April 2026 while the Amundsen Sea remained unusually ice-rich. Human-caused warming is linked to Arctic thinning, but attribution to recent changes remains uncertain due to data gaps.

Key points

• Antarctic sea ice peaked at 17.59 million square kilometers on 14 September 2026, the third-smallest winter peak since 1978.
• Arctic sea ice reached its annual minimum of 4.60 million square kilometers on 12 September 2026, tying with 2025 as the 10th-lowest extent on record.

Context

This report highlights a stark contrast between the two poles, with Antarctic conditions persisting at historically low levels despite decades of stability or increase. The findings underscore the urgency of understanding whether these trends represent a permanent structural shift or natural variability, as data limitations hinder definitive attribution to climate change.

Limitations

Data is provisional and based on limited satellite coverage; attribution of recent Antarctic changes to human-caused warming versus natural variability remains uncertain due to insufficient observational years.

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