Climate

‘Simply staggering’: Rapidly developing ‘super El Niño’ on track to peak in December

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Briefings

A rapidly developing super El Niño is projected to peak in December 2026, potentially reaching an anomaly of 4°C above average. This event has already broken satellite-era records in September, with 10 of 14 climate models forecasting a December peak. The analysis indicates the event will have its largest impact on global temperatures in 2027, with a 96% chance of being the warmest year on record.

Key points

• The super El Niño event is projected to peak in December 2026, with 10 out of 14 climate models forecasting temperatures in the Niño3.4 region to reach an anomaly of around 4°C.
• This year's El Niño has already broken multiple records, including the daily anomaly in the Niño3.4 region reaching 3.11°C in September, surpassing the 2015-16 record.

Context

Carbon Brief's 'state of the climate' update analyzes El Niño forecasts from over a dozen climate models and six global temperature datasets. Dr. Zeke Hausfather describes the event as 'simply staggering' and notes it has been running well above any prior event since June.

Limitations

The analysis relies on 656 forecasts from 14 dynamical models and six temperature datasets. The 96% chance for 2027 is based on historical relationships and factors in uncertainty about future temperature development.

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