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Institute predicts fiscal impact of R $ 40 billion with Lula measures

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Briefings

An independent fiscal institution estimated that election campaign measures announced by President Lula could generate a R$ 40 billion fiscal impact without prior budget planning. This figure includes changes to the Bolsa Família program, a reduction in betting-related revenue, and expanded benefits for microentrepreneurs. The report highlights a projected primary deficit of 0.5% of GDP for this year and up to 1% for 2027, requiring a 2.1% surplus to stabilize public debt. Key uncertainty lies in the 6.1% annual neutral interest rate, which could raise the required surplus to 2.9%. The study also notes significant credit operations exceeding R$ 147 billion in 2025, which may affect debt trajectories despite not formally counting against fiscal targets.

Key points

• An independent fiscal institution estimated that election campaign measures announced by President Lula could generate a R$ 40 billion fiscal impact without prior budget planning.
• The report highlights a projected primary deficit of 0.5% of GDP for this year and up to 1% for 2027, requiring a 2.1% surplus to stabilize public debt.

Context

The Institute for Fiscal Independence (IFI) is a consultative body linked to the Federal Senate, providing independent fiscal analysis. This briefing focuses on the specific fiscal consequences of election campaign measures announced during the 2026 re-election cycle, highlighting the gap between campaign promises and actual budgetary impact.

Limitations

The analysis covers only election campaign measures announced during the 2026 re-election cycle, excluding other proposed initiatives like the Pê-de-Meia Universitário or weekend transport tax exemptions. The report relies on IFI estimates and does not account for all campaign proposals, nor does it include the full scope of credit operations exceeding R$ 147 billion in 2025.

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