TBNClimatePolitics
Brazil’s election could determine the fate of the Amazon
Publication: Grist
Author: Clayton Aldern
Source published: 15/10/2026, 08:45:00 UTC
Briefing created: 15/10/2026, 09:02:04 UTC
Based on a feed excerpt; full article content has not been acquired. Source evidence retrieved 15/10/2026, 08:45:23 UTC.
Briefings
Brazil's 2026 presidential election between incumbent Lula and Senator Bolsonaro could determine Amazon's future. Environmental experts warn that a Bolsonaro victory would likely increase deforestation due to his climate denier stance and deregulatory agenda, despite his platform promising zero illegal deforestation by 2029. The election is scheduled for October 25, 2026, following a first-round vote where Bolsonaro received 2.2 million votes ahead of Lula. The outcome will determine which president manages the Legal Amazon, a region where deforestation is tracked annually from August to July. Uncertainty remains regarding whether the election will trigger a repeat of the environmental degradation seen under Bolsonaro's father, as the current administration has not yet implemented the promised licensing reforms.
Key points
- If Flávio Bolsonaro wins the October 25, 2026 runoff, environmental experts predict increased deforestation in the Amazon due to his climate denier status and deregulatory agenda, potentially repeating the environmental decline seen under his father's term.
- The Legal Amazon in Brazil is monitored annually from August to July, with deforestation tracked by the INPE PRODES agency, and the election outcome will determine which president manages this region's environmental policies.
Context and limitations
Data on deforestation trends is limited to the Legal Amazon region tracked annually from August to July. Forecasts regarding future environmental outcomes are uncertain and rely on expert interpretation of past political patterns rather than confirmed data.
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