Climate

‘Simply staggering’: Rapidly developing ‘super El Niño’ on track to peak in December

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Based on a feed excerpt; full article content has not been acquired. Source evidence retrieved 11/11/2026, 14:50:24 UTC.

Briefings

A rapidly developing 'super El Niño' is projected to peak in December 2026, potentially pushing global temperatures to record levels. Dr. Zeke Hausfather of Carbon Brief described the event as 'simply staggering' and noted it has already broken multiple records. Analysis of 656 forecasts from 14 models indicates a projected Niño3.4 anomaly of around 4°C, surpassing the 2015-16 record. The event is expected to have its largest effect on global temperatures in 2027, with a 96% chance of being the warmest year on record.

Key points

• The 'super El Niño' is projected to peak in December 2026, potentially reaching a Niño3.4 anomaly of around 4°C, surpassing the 2015-16 record.
• Dr. Zeke Hausfather of Carbon Brief described the event as 'simply staggering' and noted it has already broken multiple records.

Context

Carbon Brief's 'state of the climate' update analyzes El Niño forecasts from over a dozen models and six global temperature datasets. Dr. Zeke Hausfather, a climate science contributor, described the current event as developing so quickly that it has not been seen in the historical record.

Limitations

The analysis relies on 656 forecasts from 14 dynamical models, with uncertainty regarding how global temperatures will develop across the remainder of 2026. The specific peak month (December vs. November) is projected by 10 of 14 models, with the remainder anticipating a November peak.

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