Economy

Market raises projection for inflation, interest and dollar in 2026

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Based on a feed excerpt; full article content has not been acquired. Source evidence retrieved 03/11/2026, 14:24:24 UTC.

Briefings

Financial markets revised 2026 economic forecasts downward, projecting a 1.76% GDP growth instead of 1.8%, while raising interest rate expectations to 13.5% for the end of the year. The Brazilian Central Bank's Boletim Focus report, released weekly, updated key indicators including the Selic rate, inflation (IPCA), and the US dollar, reflecting a shift in market sentiment following the presidential election results.

Key points

• The Boletim Focus report updated 2026 GDP growth projections from 1.8% to 1.76%, marking the third consecutive week of downward revisions.
• Market expectations for the end-of-year Selic rate increased from 13.25% to 13.5%, with projections for 2027 and 2028 falling to 12.5% and 11% respectively.

Context

This update comes after the Brazilian presidential election results, with the market now projecting a 13.5% Selic rate for 2026, matching the previous estimate four weeks prior. The data reflects ongoing economic uncertainty and the central bank's continued focus on controlling inflation through monetary policy adjustments.

Limitations

The evidence is limited to the Boletim Focus report released on November 3, 2026, which provides weekly projections for 2026-2028. Uncertainty remains regarding the final confirmation of these figures, as the report represents market estimates rather than official government data. Some specific inflation drivers like tomato prices are mentioned but without detailed breakdowns.

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