Economy

IMF forecast growth of 2.2% of Brazil’s GDP in 2026

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Briefings

The FMI projected Brazil's 2026 GDP growth at 2.2%, down from 2.4% in the July version. This estimate remains above the Brazilian government's expectation. The FMI attributes slower growth to restrictive monetary conditions, high interest rates (Selic at 13.75% annually), and fiscal stimulus withdrawal. While the FMI forecasts inflation at 4.4% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, the government's target is 4.5%. Unemployment is projected to reach 6.2% in 2026, though recent IBGE data suggests a lower 5.3% rate in the most recent quarter.

Key points

• The FMI revised Brazil's 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.2% in October 2026, a change that remains above the government's expectation.
• High interest rates (Selic at 13.75% annually) and fiscal stimulus withdrawal are identified by the FMI as key drivers for the slowdown in Brazil's economy.

Context

The FMI's 2026 GDP projection is part of its global economic outlook, which also notes a decrease in growth for Latin America and an increase in global growth. The Brazil-specific projection is one of several perspectives discussed in the report, alongside inflation forecasts and commodity market analysis.

Limitations

The FMI's 2026 GDP projection is based on a document released in late October 2026, with data limitations regarding the most recent quarterly unemployment figures from the IBGE. The FMI's inflation and commodity projections are forward-looking estimates based on current market conditions and international energy food price trends.

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