Climate

Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions set to dip in 2026 as Iran conflict hits oil use

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Based on a feed excerpt; full article content has not been acquired. Source evidence retrieved 10/11/2026, 11:05:25 UTC.

Briefings

The 2026 Global Carbon Project report projects a 0.4% decline in fossil fuel CO2 emissions to 38.2 billion tonnes, driven by a 1.9% drop in oil emissions from the Iran conflict and strait closure. However, total CO2 emissions are projected to reach a record high of 43.3 billion tonnes due to rising land-use emissions from deforestation in South-East Asia. Land-use emissions averaged 21% lower than the decade prior, yet the net increase in 2026 remains marginally above 2025 levels.

Key points

• Fossil fuel CO2 emissions are projected to fall by 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2 billion tonnes, primarily due to a 1.9% drop in oil emissions from the Iran conflict and strait closure.
• Total CO2 emissions are projected to reach a record high of 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, driven by a 1.9% rise in land-use emissions from deforestation in South-East Asia.

Context

This briefing covers the 2026 Global Carbon Project report, which updates the annual global carbon budget. The key finding is that while fossil fuel emissions are expected to decline slightly, land-use emissions are rising, pushing total emissions to a record high. The report notes that land-use emissions averaged 21% lower than the decade before, but the net increase in 2026 remains marginally above 2025 levels.

Limitations

The 2026 budget report values are preliminary with a range spanning a fall of -1.5% to a rise of +0.6%. Land-use emissions are more challenging to estimate than fossil emissions, and the current El Niño event is expected to weaken the land sink in 2027.

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