TechPolitics

Polymarket saw $600 million in election trades after the elections were over

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Based on a feed excerpt; full article content has not been acquired. Source evidence retrieved 16/10/2026, 15:43:24 UTC.

Briefings

In October 2024, Polymarket saw $600 million in election trades after the 2024 US presidential election concluded. The vast majority of this activity involved betting on long-shot candidates who ultimately lost, with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party winning 438 parliamentary seats. Trading volume typically correlates with odds, yet here, nearly all volume ($285 million) was placed on losing candidates, while only $173,000 was wagered on Ahmed winning. This pattern suggests significant market manipulation or speculative activity by political actors rather than genuine public sentiment.

Key points

• In October 2024, Polymarket recorded $600 million in trading volume following the conclusion of the 2024 US presidential election.
• Nearly all $285 million in trading volume was placed on losing candidates, with only $173,000 wagered on Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed winning.

Context

Prediction markets on Polymarket often reflect public opinion, but this summer's activity deviated sharply from norms. The offshore platform saw massive volume on long-shot candidates who lost, indicating potential manipulation or speculative behavior rather than genuine public sentiment.

Limitations

Evidence is limited to a single article from October 2026; no additional data on market mechanisms or manipulation methods is provided.

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