Science

El Niño and tropical Atlantic warming could offer early warning of extreme heat in the Amazon

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Briefings

New research indicates that El Niño and tropical Atlantic warming patterns can serve as early warning systems for extreme heat in the Amazon Basin. The study, conducted by researchers from the ARC Center of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century and the National Institute of Space Research in Brazil, suggests these climate signals may appear up to seven months before peak temperatures occur. This potential advance detection could aid in predicting and mitigating heat-related risks in the region.

Key points

• El Niño and tropical Atlantic warming patterns can provide advance warning of extreme heat in the Amazon Basin, with signals appearing as much as seven months earlier than expected.
• The study analyzed how major patterns of natural climate variability influence temperature and rainfall extremes across the Amazon Basin using data from the ARC Center of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century and the National Institute of Space Research in Brazil.

Context and limitations

The research relies on historical climate data and modeling simulations; specific future predictions for current conditions remain uncertain. The study covers the Amazon Basin but does not provide real-time forecasts for the present day.

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