Climate

Thwaites is a runaway climate disaster. New studies show how.

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Based on a feed excerpt; full article content has not been acquired. Source evidence retrieved 26/10/2026, 14:15:24 UTC.

Briefings

New research indicates the Antarctic 'Doomsday Glacier' (Thwaites) could contribute twice as much sea level rise by 2100 as previously projected, potentially raising global levels by 10 feet if it fails entirely. A recent Nature Communications study revealed that the glacier's grounding zone is dynamic, oscillating with tides to allow warm water to penetrate and accelerate melting. While a separate study showed Pine Island Glacier could recover in cooler climates, Thwaites appears doomed to continue melting for at least 150 years even under ideal conditions. The findings highlight that the glacier's eastern half is significantly diminished, and the model now accounts for previously ignored tidal dynamics.

Key points

• Thwaites Glacier holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by 10 feet if it succumbs entirely.
• A new model predicts Thwaites could contribute twice as much to sea level rise by 2100 as previous studies suggested.

Context

This finding addresses a critical gap in climate projections regarding the Antarctic ice sheet. The study, published in Nature Communications, utilized a new model that accounts for the dynamic, tide-oscillating grounding zone beneath Thwaites, which was previously ignored. This is essential for understanding the feedback loop where melting ice exposes more ocean water, accelerating the glacier's demise.

Limitations

The model's accuracy depends on the assumption that global warming continues at current rates. The study does not account for potential geoengineering solutions or rapid deceleration of climate change. Additionally, the specific timeline for Thwaites' complete failure remains uncertain, with a 60% chance it becomes permanently unpinned by 2038.

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