Economy

Trade sales vary 0.2% in September; IBGE shows stability

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Briefings

Brazil's retail sales showed stability in September with a 0.2% monthly change, marking the first positive month in the third quarter. The IBGE's monthly commerce survey indicates a 1.7% annual growth over the past 12 months, though the manager described the result as 'stability' following a period of decline. Key data points include a 1.3% year-over-year increase in wholesale sales and a 0.8% industrial recession in August, with retail sales currently 1% below their highest point in March 2026.

Key points

• Retail sales in Brazil increased by 0.2% in September 2026, the first positive month in the third quarter.
• Wholesale sales increased by 1.3% year-over-year, while retail sales are currently 1% below their peak in March 2026.

Context

The IBGE's monthly commerce survey (PMC) is the third of three quarterly economic indicators released monthly. This data reflects the country's economic conditions, with retail sales showing stability after a decline in the previous quarter.

Limitations

Data is limited to the third quarter of 2026 and monthly snapshots; forecasts are not provided. The manager's interpretation of 'stability' is subjective and not a measured forecast.

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