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Lagarde would have a similar vote to Édouard Philippe in the race to the Elisha.

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Based on a feed excerpt; full article content has not been acquired. Source evidence retrieved 12/11/2026, 10:26:24 UTC.

Briefings

A French polling firm Cluster17 conducted a public survey on November 12, 2026, estimating that Christine Lagarde would secure 14% of the vote in the first round of the 2027 presidential election if she ran for the Eliseu alongside other candidates. This figure slightly exceeds the 13.5% share previously attributed to Édouard Philippe under similar conditions, indicating a potential shift in the center's leadership dynamics. The survey, conducted by Jean-Yves Dormagen of Cluster17, highlights the fragmentation of the center-left space in France, noting high voter volatility and a lack of moderate leadership. While Lagarde has previously dismissed the idea of running, her current candidacy is being tested for the first time in this context.

Key points

• Christine Lagarde is estimated to secure 14% of the vote in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election if she runs for the Eliseu, surpassing the 13.5% share previously attributed to Édouard Philippe.
• The survey, conducted by Cluster17 on November 12, 2026, indicates that if Lagarde and other candidates compete alongside Teddy Riner and Natacha Polony, both would secure the second round, with Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon remaining in the top two.

Context

This polling analysis comes from a French media outlet, Cluster17, which is the first public survey to test Lagarde's potential candidacy. The findings are significant as they provide data on the center's fragmentation and voter volatility, contrasting with previous analyses that focused solely on Philippe's performance.

Limitations

The survey covers only the first round of the 2027 presidential election and assumes a specific set of candidates including Riner and Polony. Results are subject to the uncertainty of public opinion and the hypothetical nature of the scenario, with no further data available on the final election outcome.

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