Science

Record El Niño? Depends who's counting

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Briefings

The Met Office and Japan's Meteorological Agency both label the current El Niño event as unprecedented or the strongest ever observed, while U.S. forecasters note it remains below historical records. This assessment highlights a significant discrepancy in global climate attribution, with the event potentially exceeding expectations for the 2020s. The findings suggest a shift in how extreme weather events are categorized and attributed to specific climatic phases.

Key points

• The Met Office and Japan's Meteorological Agency both classify the current El Niño as unprecedented or the strongest ever observed.
• U.S. forecasters indicate the event still trails the largest historical events in their record books.

Context

Global climate attribution varies by region and agency, with the Met Office and Japan's Meteorological Agency both labeling the current El Niño as unprecedented or the strongest ever observed, while U.S. forecasters note it remains below historical records.

Limitations

Evidence is limited to agency statements without independent verification or long-term trend data. Uncertainty exists regarding whether the event truly exceeds historical norms or if regional definitions vary significantly.

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