Climate

Analysis: China’s quarterly CO2 falls 3% in largest drop since Covid

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Based on a feed excerpt; full article content has not been acquired. Source evidence retrieved 12/11/2026, 17:05:25 UTC.

Briefings

China's CO2 emissions fell 3.1% in Q3 2026, the largest quarterly drop since the 2022 pandemic lockdowns. This decline resulted from a 3% drop in coal use and 4% drop in oil, driven by falling power-sector coal consumption, reduced transport oil demand, and slower coal-to-chemical growth. Clean power generation (solar, wind, nuclear) increased by 110 TWh year-on-year, exceeding total electricity demand growth. The trend extends a flat or falling pattern since March 2024. Key unknowns include future GDP slowdown impacts and the effectiveness of new clean-energy grid barriers.

Key points

• China's CO2 emissions fell 3.1% in the third quarter of 2026, marking the largest quarterly reduction since the 2022 pandemic lockdowns.
• Clean power generation increased by 110 terawatt hours year-on-year, exceeding total electricity demand growth and offsetting coal power generation declines.

Context

This analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air uses official and commercial data from Carbon Brief to track China's emissions trajectory. The findings indicate a structural shift where clean energy growth outpaces fossil fuel demand, though this relies on continued progress in removing barriers to new solar and wind power deployment.

Limitations

Data sources are limited to official figures and commercial data as listed in previous iterations. The analysis covers Q3 2026 only; future outlooks depend on unresolved factors including GDP slowdown impacts and the effectiveness of new clean-energy grid barriers. Some specific driver percentages (e.g., 3.3% coal-power drop) are derived from the provided text and may vary in broader datasets.

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