Portugal

Pension cushions reach 58.5 billion in 2027 and will continue to grow by 2070

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Briefings

The Portuguese Social Security Fund (FEFSS) is projected to reach 58.5 million euros in 2027, representing 17.2% of the country's GDP and nearly two years of pension spending. Projections indicate the fund will grow to 253.7 million euros by 2070, covering approximately five years of pension obligations without requiring additional state budget transfers. The fund's revenue primarily comes from social security excesses, with pension contributions accounting for 40% of the 4.534 million euros received in 2025. The government explicitly states these figures are conditional scenarios rather than deterministic forecasts, noting that population data revisions may alter the final outcome.

Key points

• The Portuguese Social Security Fund (FEFSS) is projected to reach 58.5 million euros in 2027, representing 17.2% of the country's GDP and nearly two years of pension spending.
• Projections indicate the fund will grow to 253.7 million euros by 2070, covering approximately five years of pension obligations without requiring additional state budget transfers.

Context

The FEFSS is managed by the Instituto de Gestão de Fundos de Capitalização da Segurança Social (IGFCSS) under the direction of José Vidrago. The fund's revenue structure includes social security excesses, pension contributions, and a portion of the Income Tax (IRCC) levy. The government emphasizes that the 2027 target is a conditional scenario based on current economic and demographic assumptions.

Limitations

Projections are explicitly conditional scenarios based on current economic and demographic assumptions, not deterministic forecasts. The final outcome may vary significantly due to alternative economic scenarios, demographic shifts, and changes in pension spending rates. The population data revision from the INE in June 2025 has not yet been fully reflected in the projections.

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