Climate

UNEP: Opportunity has ‘been lost’ to meet 1.5C warming limit without ‘overshoot’

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Briefings

UNEP's 2026 report states that exceeding the 1.5C warming limit is inevitable due to decades of insufficient action, with the current low-overshoot scenario requiring 18% emissions cuts by 2030 and 45% by 2035. Despite global emissions in 2025 being comparable to 2024 levels, the report notes that 95% of nations missed their 2035 NDC submission deadlines, leaving a significant emissions gap. While some sectors like power and transport show modest progress, fossil fuel growth and aviation demand remain critical challenges.

Key points

• UNEP's 2026 report states that exceeding the 1.5C warming limit is inevitable due to decades of insufficient action, with the current low-overshoot scenario requiring 18% emissions cuts by 2030 and 45% by 2035.
• Global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 totaled 58.4bn tonnes of CO2 equivalent, which was comparable to 2024 levels, though the report notes that 95% of nations missed their 2035 NDC submission deadlines.

Context

The report, titled 'The point of return,' serves as the UN Environment Programme's annual assessment of the global emissions gap. It identifies a temporary breach as inevitable and outlines a 'credible return path' to 1.5C by the end of the century, noting that even the lowest overshoot scenario would peak around 1.7-1.8C in the middle of the century.

Limitations

Emissions figures for 2025 are provisional and not possible to conclude on the overall direction, with high uncertainty around the numbers. The report excludes LULUCF from some country-level emissions data due to lag in national inventories, and specific growth rates for 2025 are not fully confirmed.

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